Comments on: Aggressive Portfolio Up 5.87% in Last Four Weeks http://billrempel.com/2008/04/12/aggressive-portfolio-up-587-in-last-four-weeks/ Trading Mechanical Systems Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:53:39 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Bill Rempel http://billrempel.com/2008/04/12/aggressive-portfolio-up-587-in-last-four-weeks/#comment-150 Bill Rempel Mon, 14 Apr 2008 04:00:04 +0000 http://billrempel.com/2008/04/12/aggressive-portfolio-up-587-in-last-four-weeks/#comment-150 Corrected typo on inception date. Corrected typo on inception date.

]]> By: Bill Rempel http://billrempel.com/2008/04/12/aggressive-portfolio-up-587-in-last-four-weeks/#comment-145 Bill Rempel Sun, 13 Apr 2008 03:15:24 +0000 http://billrempel.com/2008/04/12/aggressive-portfolio-up-587-in-last-four-weeks/#comment-145 Josh, Screen 2 is using a volume change metric, recent vs. longer-term volume, as the sort order. There are at least a couple of other ways to describe speculative interest, including options metrics like the stock's Put/Call ratio, trading activity in the options on the stock (specifically increases in volume on one side or the other, put or call), and short interest (my favorite being "days to cover"). If you go here http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators look for the Percentage Volume Oscillator, it's a decent article. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com has good information on the stock's Put/Call, I believe Options Monster would have information to read about changes in volume on the options. Investopedia has some links on short ratio, and I believe CXO Advisory did an analysis of research on changes in the short ratio. My interpretation of the change in volume for a stock is that it adds to the significance of whatever move the stock is making; in this case, the stocks have fundamental support and are near their 52-week highs, so more often than not it's a clue of increased price. My interpretation of the change in volume for the stock's options is that "smart money" (usually insiders) are betting on news. Ditto for changes in the short ratio. My interpretation of a high put/call or high short ratio (provided it's not increasing) is generally contrarian. I use these as support for ideas and don't run with them alone. Hope that helps! Josh, Screen 2 is using a volume change metric, recent vs. longer-term volume, as the sort order. There are at least a couple of other ways to describe speculative interest, including options metrics like the stock’s Put/Call ratio, trading activity in the options on the stock (specifically increases in volume on one side or the other, put or call), and short interest (my favorite being “days to cover”).

If you go here http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators look for the Percentage Volume Oscillator, it’s a decent article. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com has good information on the stock’s Put/Call, I believe Options Monster would have information to read about changes in volume on the options. Investopedia has some links on short ratio, and I believe CXO Advisory did an analysis of research on changes in the short ratio.

My interpretation of the change in volume for a stock is that it adds to the significance of whatever move the stock is making; in this case, the stocks have fundamental support and are near their 52-week highs, so more often than not it’s a clue of increased price.

My interpretation of the change in volume for the stock’s options is that “smart money” (usually insiders) are betting on news. Ditto for changes in the short ratio.

My interpretation of a high put/call or high short ratio (provided it’s not increasing) is generally contrarian.

I use these as support for ideas and don’t run with them alone.

Hope that helps!

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